You all know the narrative by now. The Cubs – the best offensive team in the National League (sorry Rockies – you play in Coors Field) – got stymied over the past couple of weeks by superior left-handed pitching. They had to face the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Matt Moore, Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill and simply could not produce any offense against them. Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist all couldn’t hit, evidenced by a 21 inning scoreless streak, and Cubs fans became increasingly concerned once the Dodgers took a commanding 2-1 lead in the NLCS. In the fourth inning of Game 4, Ben Zobrist laid a bunt down the third base line, reached first base, and the complexion of the series changed for good. The Cubs started to score some runs, rocked the best pitcher on the planet (Clayton Kershaw) and rode their bats to the World Series.
Even with that brutal stretch of hitting, the Cubs have still been arguably the best team in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, slashing .284/.337/.469 and driving in 35 runs in 81 at bats – a big improvement over their regular season performance (albeit in a much smaller sample size). They’ve also been better than the rest of the field when behind in the count, posting a .526 OPS – which would’ve ranked third in the NL this year and is much better than last year’s NL champion New York Mets – and driving in 24 runs in said situations. The biggest key for the Cubs will be to get runs on the board early in games, as the Indians’ starting rotation is depleted by injuries while their bullpen is as good as any we’ve ever seen in a postseason. The Cubs have struggled in a number of games this postseason to score early, but after the way they hit Kershaw early on Saturday, you have to like their chances of building on that trend. And oh, by the way, they’re getting Kyle Schwarber back to DH in Cleveland and pinch hit in Chicago after a miraculous six-month recovery from a torn ACL and LCL. Kirk Gibson, anyone?
On the other side, the Indians are a fantastic offensive team led by two of the best young players in the game (Francisco Lindor – great video on his friendship with Javy Baez – and Jose Ramirez) and three very powerful veterans (Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli and Jason Kipnis – a Northbrook native and former Cubs fan himself). Shutting them down will be no easy feat. The Indians have been great this month at putting up early runs, but they also have not had to face a pitching staff as good or as deep as that of the Cubs. What transforms this Indians’ offense them from simply good to a well-oiled machine is their baserunning.
The Indians were, by far, the best in the AL at baserunning efficiency, and that ability was pivotal in big moments of the first two rounds of the postseason. They are the best in the business at taking the extra base, and they have tremendous speed. Rajai Davis, their leadoff hitter and top platoon player against lefties, led the AL with 43 stolen bases – just two less than the Dodgers had as a team this season. As a whole, the Indians stole 134 bases – good for best in the league – and will try to exploit the slow deliveries of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, as well as Jon Lester’s base-throwing yips. Their habit of taking the extra base on should-be singles and risky tag ups has helped get them to where they are now.
All that said, the Indians now face a team that is historically great on defense, and how the Cubs handle keeping base runners honest and limiting damage in high leverage situations will go a long way in determining who comes out on top.
Advantage: Cubs by the slightest of margins
Before September, the Indians had the best and most formidable starting rotation in the AL. Within three weeks, they lost two top-of-the-rotation starters – Danny Salazar to a forearm strain and Carlos Carrasco to a broken hand. Neither has pitched for the club since hitting the DL, but Salazar has been added to the World Series roster and has a good shot to start in Game 4 on a pitch limit (65-70 pitches). That could either be a good thing or a bad thing for the Indians, and we’ll likely find that out on Saturday night at Wrigley Field.
Here’s how the probable match-ups shape up:
Game 1: Jon Lester (19-4, 2.44) vs. Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14)
This is the most intriguing pitching matchup the series has to offer, and it’s not particularly close.
Is there any pitcher on the planet right now that you’d rather have starting Game 1 of the World Series over Jon Lester? The Co-MVP of the NLCS is 2-0 this postseason with a 0.86 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in three starts spanning 21 innings. He is cementing his name in franchise and league history with his playoff dominance and now owns a 2.50 ERA in 19 career postseason games (17 starts). Of those 17 starts, he has gone seven innings or more 10 times, has lasted less than six innings only three times and has given up two runs or fewer 11 times. With incredible fastball command and a knack for getting out of stressful situations, Lester has become one of the best postseason pitchers ever; it’s hard not to feel super confident when he’s on the mound.
Opposite Lester, the Indians will be starting the 2014 American League Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, who has been dominant in his own right this postseason with a 0.98 ERA and 20 strikeouts over 18.1 innings. After Clayton Kershaw, he has been the best pitcher in the majors over the past three years by fWAR. He has a nasty breaking ball that some define as a curveball while others define it as a slider. Nevertheless, his “breaking ball” has the most horizontal movement of any slider in baseball, and he got whiffs on 27.7% of them (highest in the league). He also had the third-best cutter in the league this season – a huge weapon for him against lefties – and has great command, owning a top-15 walk rate over the past three years. His fastball, however, is the weakest part of his arsenal, so one can only hope that he somehow gets behind in counts early on and is forced to resort to his fastball for strikes.
Game 2: Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10) vs. Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26)
The Cubs have lost Arrieta’s last three postseason starts, all of which came on the road. He has given up exactly four earned runs in three of his last four such starts and a combined four home runs. Coincidentally, Arrieta’s ERA was nearly a full run better at home (2.62) than on the road (3.59) this season, but he will be taking his talents outside of the Friendly Confines once again (and again in Game 6 if necessary). No, it does not sound promising, but here’s a couple of silver linings: 1) Arrieta has proven he can take over a game at will too many times to count, and 2) Trevor Bauer just isn’t very good.
Oh, Trevor. If you hadn’t heard, Mr. Bauer sliced his right pinky when trying to fix his drone a day before his start against Toronto in the ALCS, got pushed back to Game 3 and bled all over the mound in the first inning before having to come out. Why in god’s name you’d be screwing around with drone blades before the biggest moment of your life that requires throwing a baseball is beyond me, but I digress.
If you dive into the numbers, you will find a very flawed pitcher who has struggled with consistency throughout his four plus-year career. After a killer first half of the season, Bauer got rocked over his last 15 starts, posting a 5.36 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .270 batting average against. More importantly, he was much worse at home (4.73 ERA) than on the road (3.67 ERA), and that trend continued in Game 1 of the ALDS against Boston when he gave up six hits and two home runs. It’s highly possible Bauer would not be in the playoff rotation had the Indians not suffered any injuries, but there he’ll be, starting Game 2 of the World Series.
Game 3: Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40) vs. Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13)
Before Saturday night’s start, Professor Hendricks was coming off his fourth straight meh postseason performance in four tries (four walks and six hits in 5.1 innings, although he gave up only one run), and people began to quietly wonder if he was just going to end up as one of those pitchers who owned the regular season but couldn’t consistently get it done in October. After Saturday night, that BS narrative completely changed, as Hendricks put on one of the most spectacular performances I’ve ever seen in person and led the Cubs to the NL pennant. Even Clayton Kershaw compared him to Greg Maddux. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Cubs faced the minimum number of batters in that game, the second time that has happened in a nine-inning game in postseason history. The other instance is Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. Hendricks also became the seventh pitcher to toss at least seven scoreless innings to clinch the NLCS. He now owns a 1.65 ERA over 16.1 innings this postseason and will take that with him to Wrigley Field on Friday night.
On the hill for the Indians will be Josh Tomlin who, like Bauer, has had a roller coaster career and never really settled in as a trusted starter until the first half of this season when he went 9-2. But also like Bauer, Tomlin got shelled in the second half of the season, putting up an abysmal 5.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .285 batting average against. He has been borderline fantastic since the start of September, however, having never given up more than two earned runs in any of his six starts in that span. Manager Terry Francona’s hope is to have Tomlin get through just five innings and, given his recent success, that seems to be realistic. The Cubs will have to take advantage of Tomlin’s brutal lefty/righty splits (.229/.247/.424 against lefties; .299/.323/.496 against righties) and his vulnerabilities with runners on base (opponents hit .309/.344/.539 in such situations) if they’re going to get him out of the game any earlier.
Game 4: Danny Salazar (11-6, 3.87) vs. John Lackey (11-8, 3.35)
I’m going to keep this short and sweet. John Lackey – it’s time for you to get your shit together, cowboy. You’re one of the best modern day postseason pitchers. You can yell and pout all you want at your teammates and the umpires for missing a ball or botching a call, but at the end of the day, you’re getting paid $32 million for these very moments, so it’s on you. Command the strike zone, be a leader of men and get your ass through the fifth inning (or god forbid you get through the sixth inning – it’s been over a month) for god’s sake. This will be your final shining moment of the 2016 season, so make it count.
As for Salazar, I touched on him a bit earlier. It’s impossible to know what we’re going to see from him, but I will say that when he’s on, he’s a strikeout machine with some of the best stuff in the league. As a baseball fan, you unfortunately won’t get to see much of it due to his likely shortened start. As a Cubs fan, you can (hopefully) breathe a sigh of relief.
This is the facet of the game that I’ve been losing sleep over. The Indians have hands down the best bullpen in MLB, led by ALCS MVP Andrew Miller – possibly the best relief pitcher in the league over the past few years – whom they acquired at the trade deadline. Miller, like Chapman, came over from the Yankees in a blockbuster trade, and he has been nothing short of sensational. Since September 7, he has yet to give up a run, and in 11.2 postseason innings thus far, he has given up only five hits, two walks and struck out 21 of the 41 batters he has faced. He has one of the game’s very best sliders (just wait until you see this thing), which he throws 60.6% of the time and throws a deadly four-seem fastball the rest of the time. Terry Francona will not shy away from going to Miller early and often as evidenced by his four outings of two or more innings this postseason. On top of that, Francona also has at his disposal the game’s hottest closer in Cody Allen, who has given up just one measly run and has saved 14 games since August 21, as well as the heavily-utilized Bryan Shaw and groundball specialist Dan Otero.
As for the Cubs, I expect that you’re quite familiar with their bullpen by now. It has not necessarily been smooth sailing, as a number of guys struggled while working in unusual roles, namely Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon and Aroldis Chapman. The biggest concerns are Rondon, who has a 9.45 ERA over the past three months and seems to have lost Joe Maddon’s trust, and Chapman who, for whatever reason, can’t seem to pitch well in more than one inning and certainly can’t pitch well when inheriting runners. One thing to watch closely is how often he is getting ahead in counts. Check out this chart below from ESPN’s Sam Miller:
Pretty eye-opening, don’t you think? It goes without saying that if and when Chapman gets behind in any counts going forward, I’ll surely have the feeling of wet feces seeping down my leg.
Lastly, C.J. Edwards left Game 4 of the NLCS after experiencing tightness in his hamstring, but it sounded minor and he should be ready to go in Cleveland. He has yet to give up a run in 3.2 scoreless innings, so we’ll need him.
In my NLDS preview against the Giants, I provided an in-depth analysis of just how good this Cubs defense is – probably the best of all time – and I’m sure you noticed if you just started watching more intently this month. With the Indians likely to be very active on the base paths, the Cubs defense will be plenty busy, and it’ll all start up the middle with the magical combination of Javy Baez and Addison Russell.
The Indians are no joke either when they take the field. They ranked second in the AL in defensive efficiency and they were second to the Cubs overall in converting groundballs into outs. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is unquestionably the best player at his position in the AL and could very well be the best defensive player in all of baseball. The Lindor-Kipnis double play combination is top notch. But whereas the Cubs have virtually no weaknesses across the diamond (unless Jorge Soler starts in the outfield), the Indians are fairly weak in the outfield, and their arms will certainly be tested. A big plus for them is catcher Roberto Perez, who does a great job with the pitching staff and rated as the second best pitch framer in the AL this season.
There’s no doubt that my man crush for Joe Maddon is real. Outside of a couple of decisions I questioned (like taking out Jon Lester early in Game 1 of the NLCS), I would trust this man with my life. The life, the attitude and the positive vibes he brings to the clubhouse are intangibles that cannot be measured but have proven invaluable. He earned the nickname “The Mad Genius” for good reason, and it’s not just for his appearance. In my mind, he is the best manager in baseball – except, of course, for the man he’ll be managing against this week.
Terry Francona was Joe Maddon before Joe Maddon. Maybe not as eccentric, but the demeanor and the likeability factor was always second to none. He is a fantastic baseball mind who competed with Maddon for the Red Sox managerial gig in 2003 (interviewed by Theo Epstein, of course), only to seize it and go on to win two World Series championships. He earned himself a heroic reputation in a city that had also been starved of a World Series for the prior 86 years. Francona is 8-0 in the last two fall classics he has managed in, and this season he has guided an Indians team that lost it’s star outfielder, starting catcher and (arguably) top two starting pitchers to the World Series. He has locked himself into the Hall of Fame and deserves the benefit of the doubt on this one.
After having my heart broken too many times to count, I’ve gone through 27 years of my life with a pessimistic outlook on the Cubs, almost always seeing the glass half-empty. But today, I sit before you with more confidence than I’ve ever had. The Cubs are going to win the World Series. I truly believe that. There’s something magical going on right now. This is our year. This is our time.
Prediction: Cubs in 5
How fast time flies. Seems like yesterday when I experienced one of the greatest moments of my life as I watched the Cubs clinch their first NLCS berth in 12 years at Wrigley Field. We all know what she wrote next, but even after a sweep at the hands of the Mets, the season went as well as anyone could’ve expected. The Cubs were back – a lurking juggernaut ready to take over the baseball landscape for years to come.
Here we are, one year later, and the Cubs finished the 2016 season with 103 wins and wrapped up the NL Central division two weeks early. Five years ago, I never thought I’d see that day. The thing about baseball, though, is that come Friday night, those 103 wins and that division title mean nothing whatsoever. Baseball is more random than any sport, where shitty players can become unsung heroes and great players can become scapegoats in the blink of an eye. The best team seldom wins. It’s a clean slate, and everyone is back to a level playing field.
Over the past 36 hours, the supernatural nightmare that every Cubs fan deals with has worsened significantly. The Billy Goat Curse is one thing, but the “Even Year” Theory is a whole other, what with the Giants getting hot at the right time and looking poised to win another World Series in an even year. No one wants to play this Giants team, but no one wants to play this Cubs team, either. The Cubs were the best team in the league all season – maybe the best Cubs team ever assembled (anyone born before 1900 want to prove me wrong?) – while the Giants nearly became the first team ever to have the best record in the first half of a season and miss the playoffs entirely. The time is now for the Cubs to write the wrongs of the previous 108 years and solidify themselves as one of the best teams of all time. Will they rise to the occasion, or fall victim to the supernatural and wilt under pressure? I’m very excited yet very nervous to find out.
Let’s get to the matchup.
By all accounts, the Cubs had the best offense in the National League this season. Led by MVP candidates Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, they finished second to the Rockies in runs scored (808) and OPS (.772), first in walk rate (10.4%) and 10th in strikeout rate (21.1%). For some perspective, the Cubs scored 119 runs more runs than last year and struck out 221 fewer times, emphasizing how much better this team is offensively compared to the 2015 version. They also were, by far, better than any time at avoiding double plays, posting the highest double play efficiency in the league.
The Giants, though, are no slouches either. What they lack in power (only 130 home runs total without anyone hitting over 17), they make up for in patience and grit. They posted a 9.1% walk rate and struck out in only 17.7% of their plate appearances – far less than any team in the league. Just like the Cubs, they grind away during every at bat, placing near the top of the league in pitches per plate appearance and regularly pushing opposing pitchers out of games early. Mainstay catcher Buster Posey is the Giants’ most dangerous hitter in this context, as he very rarely strikes out and regularly puts the ball in play. You saw the Giants do this exact thing against the Mets by forcing Noah Syndergaard out of the game before the eighth inning and feasting on their bullpen to win.
If you think back to last year, you might remember that the Cubs were one of the worst teams in the majors at hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP). This year, however, they improved a lot, jumping from the bottom tier to the middle by slashing .252/.351/.420 compared to the Giants’ .250/.328/.378 line. The two guys to watch here are the aforementioned Rizzo and Giants right fielder Hunter Pence, as they are each team’s most clutch hitter and biggest run producer. Rizzo led the league in plate appearances with RISP and hit .344 in such situations, while Pence hit .321 in far less appearances due to injury. The Cubs are still weak at producing with RISP with two outs, but they have been better than the Giants there as well.
It will be very interesting to see how Joe Maddon continues to juggle the never-ending lineup combinations at his disposal. Assuming he’s healthy, and given his incredible success last October (7-for-19 with three homers and five RBI), I’d anticipate we’ll see Jorge Soler in the lineup and playing left field when a lefty is on the mound (Madison Bumgarner and Matt Moore). Against righties, expect to see Kris Bryant starting in left field and Javier Baez at third base. Whatever the case may be, the Cubs were a far superior team at the plate this season, and their lineup is absolutely loaded from top to bottom. When Jason Heyward finally breaks out, just remember that you heard it here first (and forget you heard that here when he continues to suck).
As I’ll explain later, the Cubs defense is a major reason why the starting rotation holds the lowest ERA (2.96), lowest BABIP (.252), highest strand rate (78.6%) and highest win probability added in the league, all by very wide margins. They also have a top-three K-BB%. Statistically speaking, the Giants rotation has been a step or two behind, but that’s all about to change. Let’s get to the matchups.
Game 1: Johnny Cueto (18-5, 2.79) vs. Jon Lester (19-4, 2.44)
For the majority of his career, Johnny Cueto has been a bona fide ace, and that has not changed since he signed with the Giants last winter. The problem for everyone else in the league is that he’s locked in as the number two starter in their rotation. He had a really strange 2015 season, as he got traded from Cincinnati to Kansas City in July, had the worst couple of months of his career, got shellacked throughout the playoffs and then threw a complete game shutout in the World Series. Because the Cubs are so familiar with Cueto (he has 24 starts against them in his career), it would not surprise me to see the Cubs get to him, as he’s proven capable of imploding. But given his recent success (1.78 ERA in September) and Cy Young-caliber season, it’s safe to assume that he’ll pitch very well.
Lester, of course, was perhaps the best pitcher in the NL this season and had what same say was the best season of his 11-year career. He’s coming off an epic second half (10-1, 1.76 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) and an even better September (5-0, 0.48 ERA, 0.69 WHIP) that led to an NL Pitcher of the Month award. Lester was also phenomenal at home this season, and I don’t see that changing Friday night. There is no one in the Cubs rotation that I trust more than Lester, and his career 2.85 ERA in the postseason has allowed me to sleep like a baby this week.
Game 2: Jeff Samardzija (12-11, 3.81) vs. Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13)
Welcome back, Jeff Samardzija. After a brutal June/July (shocking, I know), Shark settled down and ended up finishing the season very strong. However, in his lone start against the Cubs on September 1, they attacked him in the early going and forced him out of the game by the fifth inning. Like with Cueto, the Cubs are very familiar with Samardzija’s stuff since he, ya know, played for them for seven years. When he’s off, he’s off. When he’s on, he’s decent. He instills no fear in me and should instill no fear in you.
I’m sure you all are aware of Kyle Hendricks’ fairytale season up until this point, so I won’t harp it on much. Precision is Hendricks’ trademark, and after posting a league-leading 2.13 ERA and 24.9% soft-hit rate, Hendricks’ (silent) confidence is through the roof. He owns the best changeup in baseball, and his 1.32 ERA at Wrigley Field was likely one of the driving forces behind Joe Maddon’s decision to start him in Game 2. All of the above gives me reason to believe that this game is going to be all Cubs.
Game 3: Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10) vs. Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74)
This is the matchup that will keep Cubs fans up at night. If you are unaware with Bumgarner’s work up until now, then I don’t even know how you stumbled across a baseball-related article, let alone this one. But at just 27 years of age, Bumgarner is already being considered by many to be the greatest postseason pitcher of all time, and his start against the Mets on Wednesday night only added to his legend. In 54.2 postseason innings on the road, Bumgarner has a 0.50 ERA; in 23 win-or-go-home postseason innings, he has yet to give up a single run (yes, this game will be in San Francisco, but that stat is too ridiculous to not mention). He has been an integral part (and in one case, nearly the only part) of three World Series-winning teams, and he never, ever seems to let the moment get to him. It is appalling what he has been able to accomplish, and you have to expect that any game he pitches will result in a loss for the opponent – he’s just that absurdly good in October.
Arrieta concerns me more than any player on the roster, and for good reason. No one expected him to live up to his 2015 season since what he did had never been done before, but he has been pedestrian at best since mid-June and has not looked the same. His walk rate was way up this season (9.6% vs. 5.5% last season), as his command and control haven’t consistently been there for him. He has made it a habit of getting behind in the count, which has not allowed him to throw his nasty slider/cutter effectively. There’s also the belief that Arrieta has been slightly over-rotating during his delivery, which might be nothing but could be something. Nevertheless, if the Cubs lose one of the first two games in the series, they could be in some serious trouble as they head to San Francisco with Madison Bumgarner waiting. That scares the shit out of me.
Game 4: John Lackey (11-8, 3.35) vs. Matt Moore (6-5, 4.08)
Matt Moore was once a highly touted pitcher coming up through the Tampa Bay Rays system, but he has never been the same since his Tommy John surgery in 2014. The Rays gave up on him this season and sent him to the Giants at the trade deadline, where he’s had yet another up and down season. A 3.16 ERA in August rose to 6.56 in September, and it’s hard to say which Moore will show up on a given night. It’s worth noting, though, that although Moore has never pitched against the Cubs, they are the best team in the NL against lefties, and Moore has a tendency to give up homers as well.
John Lackey is an October warrior, and he was brought to Chicago on a two-year deal for this very moment. He has a career 3.11 ERA in the postseason and has pitched in and won multiple World Series games. The man didn’t come here for a haircut – he came here for jewelry. He came here to get it on. Gotta feel great about Game 4.
The Cubs and Giants have the two deepest rotations in the postseason, but having Madison Bumgarner, even if it ends up being for just one game, pushes the needle too far for me. Because of him, the slight edge (and it’s slight)
goes to the Giants.
The Giants’ bullpen is an absolute mess. They led the league in blown saves (30), including nine in September, which nearly cost them a postseason appearance. Per ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian, the Giants lost more games (nine) that they entered the ninth inning with a lead than any team in baseball – five of which came in September. They lost 10 games that they led by three or more runs, most in the major leagues. They have flip-flopped closers multiple times, going from Sergio Romo to Santiago Casilla back to Romo. As mentioned earlier, the Cubs are amongst the best in the league at grinding at-bats and forcing starting pitchers out of games early. If they can continue to emphasize patience at the plate, the Cubs will force Bruce Bochy to go to his bullpen early and often, which could very well end up being the key to the entire series.
The Cubs’ bullpen, on the other hand, has been consistently good all season. As expected, The addition of Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline has been a massive one. In 26.2innings, Chapman saved 16 games and owns a miniscule 1.01 ERA with 46 K’s and only 12 hits allowed. His 101+ MPH fastball combined with his 91-92 MPH slider makes him nearly unhittable; once he gets the ball, it’s game-set-match.
That said, not everything has been sunshine and rainbows with this unit. Setup man Hector Rondon came out hot after a DL stint for a strained triceps back in August, but he has given up seven earned runs in his last 2.2 innings and finished the month of September with an 8.53 ERA; Pedro Strop missed six weeks in August/September recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery and has only 3.2 innings under his belt since coming back; Travis Wood got rocked by righties this year and turned himself into a LOOGY (Lefty One-Out Guy) for the first time in his career; C.J. Edwards, who looked otherworldly in the first half of the season, had a rough final two months of the season (6.00 ERA in August, 5.79 ERA in September). And yet, I’m not too worried about any of this, and after the second halves Justin Grimm and Mike Montgomery had, the seven of these guys still form arguably the most formidable bullpen in the playoffs.
With respect to Yadier Molina, catcher Buster Posey (catcher) and defending Gold Glove shortstop Brandon Crawford are the two best defensive players in the NL at their respective positions and are the odds-on favorites to win Gold Gloves this season. Crawford, who was second in the NL in defensive runs saved, forms a dynamic double-play combination with second baseman Joe Panik. The outfield trio of Hunter Pence, Denard Span and Angel Pagan was expected to be above average, but each of them regressed this season. Given the experience they all have in the postseason, expect each of them to step it up again.
As for the Cubs, well, they may have the greatest defense of all time. 22-year old Addison Russell has continued to make his case for best shortstop in the NL but trails Crawford for now; Javier Baez is the league’s most valuable swiss army knife, playing plus-defense at three different positions (second base, third base, shortstop); right fielder Jason Heyward a lock to win his fourth Gold Glove in five years; Dexter Fowler has turned himself into an above average center fielder, by FanGraphs standards, by playing a bit deeper this season; and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who combines fearlessness with grace as well as anyone in baseball, is the most valuable first basemen (from a defensive standpoint) with his league-leading 11 defensive runs saved.
Per Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs, as a whole, led the Major Leagues in Defensive Efficiency by a ridiculous margin. Their score of .745 is the highest by any team since 1982 (San Diego). The gap between the Cubs and the second-ranked Blue Jays is higher than the gap between the Blue Jays and the 27th-ranked Mets. Is that even real? Seems impossible, but I can assure you that it’s not.
Joe Maddon is the f***ing man. He is absolutely incredible at managing a bullpen, developing talent, building a great culture and putting players in the best position to succeed. But as great as he is at all of these things, there is no way he can get the edge here over Bruce Bochy. Bochy has won three World Series championships in the past six years, and he always seems to push the right buttons. Until proven otherwise, Bochy is the best manager in baseball. Period.
Of the three potential Wild Card teams, the Giants were the one team that no one wanted to face. Naturally, it turned out the exact way no Cubs fan wanted it to, but at least the “be careful what you wish for” saying can get tossed out the window. I truly believe the winner of this series will end up getting to the World Series. The Cubs will to find a way to win this one, but it won’t be without some gray hairs and a series of heart attacks.
Prediction: Cubs in 5