Aroldis Chapman is a Necessary Piece to the Cubs Championship Puzzle
Close your eyes. Imagine it’s Game 7 of the NLCS, and the Cubs have a one-run lead heading into the ninth inning with Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy coming up to bat. Aroldis Chapman, baseball’s best relief pitcher who has held opposing left-handed hitters to a .122 batting average in his seven-year career, takes the hill to send the Cubs to their first World Series since 1945.
Open your eyes. How do you feel? Confident? At ease? You should.
Close your eyes again. Imagine it’s Game 7 of the NLCS, and the Cubs are down one run heading into the ninth inning. Aroldis Chapman, baseball’s best relief pitcher who has a mere six blown saves combined in his past 151.2 innings of work, takes the hill to send the Nationals to their first World Series since they left Montreal. The Cubs are batting .226 as a team when behind in any game, second worst in the Majors, and they’ve entered the ninth inning with a deficit 35 times and have never left the inning with a lead. They have 19 come-from-behind wins all season; comparatively, the Giants, Dodgers, Nationals and Cardinals have 30, 28, 27 and 25 such wins, respectively.
Open your eyes again. How do you feel now? Scared? Apprehensive? You should.
This, in a nutshell, is why the Cubs had to get Aroldis Chapman, and they didn’t really have a choice. There are other reasons, of course, that we’ll get into soon, but, if anything, acquiring Chapman’s services keeps him away from the opposition in October. Instead of preventing them from getting to, and winning, the World Series, he’ll (hopefully) do just the opposite.
You may be wondering how you’ve been reading this for a minute and haven’t seen any mention of Chapman’s domestic abuse issue that cost him 30 games to start this season. My response: it has zero impact on whether or not the Cubs win the World Series, so I’m not going to discuss it. I am as harsh as any when it comes to cheating the game and committing domestic abuse. The current penalties in place in all sports are not strong enough. Players should be suspended an entire season for their first offense – no ifs, ands or buts about it. But I don’t make the rules, so we take what we’re given. Chapman served his time, and it’s now in the past. If Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer trust bringing the man into the clubhouse, then I’m cool with it, too.
One of my biggest pet peeves with talking heads and sports fans is when they preface their analysis on a move or transaction with “from a purely baseball perspective.” What the hell else kind of perspective am I looking for? A hygiene perspective? A baking perspective? No shit a baseball trade should be analyzed from a baseball perspective. Just because Chapman did something terrible (and he did do something terrible), you’re not a bad person for actually wanting him on this team. This isn’t Dr. Phil. This is baseball, and the sad reality is, if you have uber talent and you aren’t named Aaron Hernandez, you’re going to be highly coveted, and you’re going to be on a team. That goes for any sport. So leave the non-baseball analysis to the front office, and stop analyzing from anything other than from a baseball perspective. Carry on.
If you’re skeptical of the expensive package the Cubs had to send to New York in order to strike a deal, that’s another story, and your skepticism is valid. The Cubs gave up an absolute haul to get this thing done – there’s no denying that – and it’s all for a three month rental. Gleyber Torres, the organization’s top prospect and the 26th overall prospect according to Keith Law of ESPN, is the big ticket item on the move, but as high as his ceiling might be, he’s still a raw, 19-year-old shortstop who had no clear path to the Cubs big league roster, so long as Addison Russell and Javier Baez are around. The kid is still a good 2-3 years away from the Majors, and he has as good a chance to be a bust as he does to be a star.
Along with Torres goes Billy McKinney, a once highly-touted prospect who the Cubs received from Oakland in the Addison Russell trade. McKinney has really struggled in his second season in Double-A and continues to show no power whatsoever – not a good thing for an every day corner outfielder. Adam Warren, who can surely take his 5.91 ERA back to New York where it came from (he has given up 19 earned runs in his past 15.2 innings of relief work – not a joke), and Rashad Crawford, an unknown High-A prospect who I’m not even going to pretend to know anything about, are the last two pieces included in the deal.
But what Chapman brings to the table cannot be understated. The Cubs have seen their bullpen ERA rise every month, from 2.72 in April to 4.64 in July. Their left-handed relief pitchers have allowed a .956 OPS in July – the sixth-highest OPS allowed by such pitchers this month – while Chapman has allowed a .351 OPS in July, fourth lowest in MLB. He throws harder than any pitcher who has ever played the game, having thrown 1,513 pitches at 100.0 mph or faster, more than the next 18 pitchers on the list combined. Of 533 qualified pitchers over the past seven seasons, not one has allowed a lower opponent batting average (.157) than Chapman, who also owns the highest K/9 (15.2 – min. 250 innings) in MLB history. And perhaps most importantly, Chapman has not allowed a run to the hated St. Louis Cardinals since – get this – 2011. That’s 25 straight scoreless appearances with 46 strikeouts to boot. This dude is nasty. And he’s now a Cub.
Acquiring the flame-throwing Chapman gives Joe Maddon the luxury of sliding Hector Rondon to a setup role, which is a great luxury to have considering the four saves he has blown in his last 10 save opportunities. It also allows Maddon the flexibility to slide the electric Pedro Strop into a 7th inning role, as he has proven to be better served in low and medium leverage situations throughout his career anyways. That trio, along with the slowly improving Justin Grimm (hasn’t given up a run since June 26), Carl Edwards Jr., Travis Wood, Mike Montgomery and either Joe Nathan or Trevor Cahill, helps form the most formidable bullpen in baseball. In October, that will mean everything.
The package the Cubs gave up to bring in Chapman may be a tough pill to swallow now, but that’s the sacrifice you have to make when you’re trying to win a World Series. The front office’s ability to stockpile so many valuable assets over the past four years has put them into the enviable situation that they sit in today. The time to win is now – not five years from now – and at some point, some of these young assets have to be leveraged for the present. Nothing is guaranteed in sports, and championship windows are almost always shorter than originally perceived. Today, the Cubs acquired the best relief pitcher in baseball, and when Aroldis Chapman records the last out of the World Series in a Cubs uniform, the price they paid to make that happen will be nothing but a distant memory.