Dwyane Wade to the Bulls: Not as Flash-y as it Sounds
To be perfectly blunt, the signing of Wade (and Rondo, for that matter) is an absolute joke. It’s a classic example of two guys (Forman and Paxson) trying to save their jobs by making a splash for a former superstar in order to justify striking out with him six years ago and praying that the “talent” works itself out. It’s also a classic example of a geriatric owner, yet again, refusing to hit rock bottom and not allowing his organization to enter into a much needed rebuild. He’s done it with the White Sox for the past five years, and he’s doing it with the Bulls now. At 80 years old, Jerry Reinsdorf has zero interest in undertaking a franchise overhaul, holding on to any sliver of hope that he can take one more ring with him to his grave. It’s the sad reality of a franchise being owned by a stubborn old man who is blinded by his enormous bank account and keeping fans in his seats, and a franchise being run by two incompetents who are lagging 10+ years behind the brilliant analytical minds that have taken over the sports landscape. Recognizing and understanding the loads and loads of data that’s out there, much of which is open to the public, and demonstrating any sort of soft skills when it comes to actually conversing with players and agents, can go a long way towards building a legitimate, sensible roster and keeping it in tact for the foreseeable future.
From a pure basketball standpoint, we are now entering a period where we can already crown an undoubted champion 11 months before the NBA season even begins, and signing Dwyane Wade makes little to no sense whatsoever for a non-contender like the Bulls. Why? It’s easy.
In a world where premier three-point shooting is as valuable as having stock in Apple just four years ago, the Bulls have found a way to piece together a starting back court containing three of the weakest three point shooters in the game. While Wade, Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler combined for a mere 133 made threes last year, 30 other players in the NBA were busy making at least that many threes on their own. Not only that, but these are also three very ball-dominant guards, each of whom actually needs the ball in his hands to be effective offensively. Fred Hoiberg was hired to install his pace-and-space system, which relies heavily on versatility, athleticism and shooting. With three non-shooting, ball-dominant guards running the offense (one of which is a 34-year-old who has missed over 20% of games the past five seasons due to various knee ailments, the other of which is literally afraid to shoot or get fouled because he sucks so much), there will be no pace, and there will certainly be no space.
Last season, Wade’s advanced statistics were either career lows or his worst marks since his rookie season. He shot a career worst 46.8% on twos, and the lack of explosion he once had has strapped him from getting to the basket on a frequent basis. According to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, during Wade’s peak 2008-09 season, 17.8 percent of his shots came from within the 3 to 16 foot range. By last season, that figure had grown to 40.9 percent, and Wade sunk just 37.8 percent of those attempts. He still ranked fifth in the league in usage percentage last season but managed a measly .517 true shooting percentage, which ranked 11th among the 12 players with usage rates of 30 percent or greater, ahead of only Kobe Bryant (.469).
From a defensive standpoint, Wade is nowhere near the lockdown defender he once was. He posted the lowest steal rate of his career last season and, discounting his rookie season, he has posted his three lowest block rates over the past three seasons. What was once a staple of Wade’s game on the defensive end has rapidly gone from fully expected on a nightly basis to “where did that come from” due to age and mileage on his legs. ESPN’s real plus-minus* even rated Wade in the bottom-third of shooting guards defensively and a below average player overall – worse than guys like Kyle Korver and Monta Ellis.
If you want to take the half-glass full route, go for it – everyone is entitled to their own opinion. There’s no question that Dwyane Wade is one of the four or five greatest shooting guards of all time. He’s a three-time NBA champion, one-time NBA Finals MVP, ten-time All-NBA player, four-time NBA All Defense, 12-time NBA All-Star and three-time NBA scoring champion, and the leadership he’ll bring to the locker room could be invaluable – especially when an overwhelmingly negative presence like Rondo is roaming around. There will be some incredible moments, to be sure, that will excite fans in spurts. But for every incredible moment, there will be many head-scratching moments, too – ones where Wade has to miss time because his knees are aching, something us Bulls fans should not be naive in foreseeing. The Hall of Fame-caliber Dwyane Wade is now in the rear-view mirror, and there’s no sugarcoating what little value Pat Riley saw left in him by letting the greatest and most accomplished athlete in Miami sports history walk out without regret.
Trading Derrick Rose was ultimately a good decision for the Bulls, but signing Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade was not. It’s not that the Bulls can’t be better than last season’s 42-40 record – in fact, they probably will. They’ll make the playoffs in a crappy Eastern Conference, bow out early, and earn themselves another bad draft pick. But there’s nothing worse for any sports franchise than toiling in mediocrity, and that’s where the Bulls have found themselves, to no fault but their own. Sure, with the salary cap projected to go up another $8M or so next summer, the Bulls will get a chance to recruit one max free agent , but so will a lot of other teams. Given the track record our front office has when it comes to signing big time free agents, and the bad rap it has received throughout the NBA over the years, whose to say Chicago will be everyone’s top choice?
Gar Forman had a vision that “younger and more athletic” was a necessity for re-tooling the most disappointing team in the NBA last season. Turns out that vision was just another one of his blurry, pixelated pictures that he painted for the rest of the fan base in order to save face. Wade coming back home sounds cool in theory, but envisioning him meshing with the current pieces in place leaves me shaking my head over what lies ahead.
*ESPN’s real plus-minus is a player’s estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors.