The Lukewarm Stove: Cubs Need Pitching Help

The Cubs could use some pitching help if they expect to make noise this season.

For the past three years under the direction of Theo Epstein, the Cubs were purposely consistently one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The summer hot stove was always filled with trade rumors involving the Cubs as sellers, and for good reason. Each winter, they’d sign guys to one year contracts, or trade for guys with expiring contracts who had never lived up to their expectations, turn them into valuable assets in a three or four-month span, then sell them for a buck fifty on the dollar. It’s straight up genius, and it has worked to their advantage nearly every. Single. Time. Take a look:

  • 2012 Deadline
    • Traded Geovany Soto to Rangers to Jake Brigham, whom they flipped back to Rangers for Barrett Loux. Advantage: probably no one.
    • Traded Ryan Dempster to Rangers for Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks. Advantage: Cubs.
  • 2013 Deadline
    • Traded Alfonso Soriano to Yankees for Corey Black. Advantage: Soriano did hit 17 homers in 58 games with the Yankees that season, but they missed the playoffs. Only the Cubs can win this trade, as Soriano has since retired and Black is still in the minors.
    • Traded Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. Advantage: Lol.
    • Traded Carlos Marmol to Dodgers for Matt Guerrier. Both players are currently out of the league. Advantage: wash.
    • Traded Matt Garza to Rangers for CJ Edwards, Mike Olt and Justin Grimm. Advantage: Cubs. Not even close.
  • 2014 Deadline
    • Traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A’s for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily (whom they flipped to Houston with Luis Valbuena for Dexter Fowler).  Advantage: Cubs. Couldn’t have worked out worse for Oakland.
    • Traded Emilio Bonifacio and James Russell to Braves for Victor Caritimi. Russell is now back with the Cubs, and Caritimi is a borderline top 10 prospect in the Cubs system. Advantage: Cubs.
    • Traded Darwin Barney to Dodgers for a bag of peanuts. Actually. Advantage: Cubs.

As outlined above, the Cubs have made nine deadline deals (unless I’m missing any) since the summer of 2012, and that trend will almost certainly continue in 2015. The difference now is that, for the first time since 2008, the Cubs finally look like buyers. However, it’s not quite as easy to outsmart other GMs when you’re a buyer and desperate for help that can improve your chances of winning a World Series ring immediately. The thing is, Theo and Jed aren’t desperate – at least not this year. They are not willing to mortgage their future for the present, especially with the position they’re in now. They’ve got one of the youngest cores in the league and have put together a legitimate offensive juggernaut in the making. If and when the Cubs make a deal this summer, it will be on Theo and Jed’s terms, trading guys who they don’t see fitting into their future plans, as opposed to going all in and praying it works out. Condolences to Billy Beane.

All that said, Theo and Jed are not blind. The Cubs needs pitching help, and they need it badly. Through seven weeks, the back of the rotation has been an inconsistent mess, and the bullpen has been a borderline disaster. Although they rank a solid 3rd in the NL in starter’s ERA, their bullpen ERA ranks 10th, bringing them to a mediocre 7th place ranking overall. If you’re thinking to yourself that it could be worse, you’re right – it can. Kyle Hendricks has been fantastic his past two starts, lowing his ERA nearly a run and a half over that span, from 5.15 to 3.76. Neil Ramirez will also be back soon (hopefully) to help the bullpen, although who knows how he’ll be with that shoulder.

The problem is that the Cardinals and Pirates rank ahead of the Cubs in every aspect of pitching, and they have to play them only, what, 20 more times combined this year? The Cubs are 8-8 against those two teams thus far, and if they plan on making it to October, they’d best be served acquiring some pitching help and getting on their levels.

Next winter’s free agent class will be very strong as far as starting pitching goes, and a number of top-of-the-rotation starters will be on the market over the next two months. Whether the Cubs go after one before the deadline remains to be seen, and a lot may be riding on whether or not Tsuyoshi Wada continues to hold down the fifth spot successfully in place of Travis Wood. If things take a turn for the worse, though, or Theo and Jed get an offer they can’t refuse, they’ve proven they won’t be afraid to pull the trigger.

Below are names of various starters/relievers that will be thrown around nearly every day until the end of July, categorized by probability that they’ll end up a Cub.

Favorites

Scott Kazmir, SPOakland A’s

A three-time All-Star, the 31-year-old Kazmir has dealt with his fair share of injuries and adversity throughout his career. Over a four-year span early in his career, Kazmir was one of the best pitchers in the American League – the bona-fide ace of the 2008 pennant-winning Tampa Bay Rays. Injuries temporarily derailed his career during 2011 and 2012 before he signed a minor league contract with the Cleveland Indians in 2013.

After his resurgent season there, the A’s signed Kazmir to a two-year contract, where he was arguably the American League’s best pitcher for the first four months of 2014 before getting shelled in August and September. Nevertheless, Kazmir was a huge reason for Oakland’s incredible first half last season, and he would bring a lot of value and leadership as a veteran southpaw to the top (or in the Cubs’ case, middle) of any rotation.

Given Kazmir’s inconsistency over the past year+ (2014 splits include 2.38 ERA pre-All Star break and 5.42 ERA post-All Star break; 2015 splits include 0.99 ERA in April, 5.14 ERA in May), as well as Oakland’s complete fall from grace (17-32 record, good for dead last in the AL), all signs point to a very trigger-happy Billy Beane – shocking news to baseball fans, I’m sure. I can’t imagine Beane asking for too much for Kazmir – Duane Underwood and another prospect would probably be the ceiling –  so if the price is right, Theo and Jed will likely pounce.

Tyler Clippard, RPOakland A’s

Clippard is one of the best eighth-inning relievers in baseball, and it has been that way for the past six years (with one season at closer thrown in). The A’s acquired him from the Nationals for next to nothing back in January, and he’ll be a free agent at season’s ended. With Pedro Strop struggling mightily this month (6.57 ERA in 12.1 IP) after a ridiculous April (0.00 ERA  in 9.1 IP), the Cubs may look to scoop up a setup man who has posted 147 holds since 2010 in Clippard.  Given the current state of the A’s, you can bet your ass that Clippard will be gone before he knows it.

50/50 Chance

Cole Hamels, SPPhiladelphia Phillies

To be honest, the chances of the Cubs acquiring Cole Hamels are lower than 50/50 – it just seemed like a good category name. Those chances are completely contingent on whether or not Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has finally removed his head from his ass; it’s been stuck there for years. Last season, rumor had it that Amaro was demanding Kris Bryant or Javy Baez in some kind of an absurd package in exchange for Hamels. He demanded at least two of the Dodgers top three prospects, all of whom are top 30 prospects overall. Now he apparently wants Bryant or Addison Russell – obviously not happening. At some point though, something’s gotta give.

Given his serious struggles at the plate in limited at-bats last season, it is widely believed that the Cubs are now willing to part ways with Baez. As high as Baez’ ceiling is, he likely will never truly patch up the high K rate. He needs to figure out how to adjust to major league pitching, and last summer proved it may take a bit longer than expected. On top of all that, the Cubs are clearly loaded with position players up and down the system, with pitching being their achilles’ heal. I doubt Theo would be willing to package Baez for two months of Hamels, and I don’t think he should. A team like the New York Mets, who are loaded with pitching prospects but lack hitters, would be a perfect fit, but that’s another story for another day. If the Cubs were to saddle up for Cole Hamels, what does he bring to the table?

For one, Hamels has been one of the ten best pitchers in baseball over the past decade. He’s finished in the top eight of the Cy Young voting four times, sporting a career 3.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 8.50 K/9. More importantly, he has a career postseason record of 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 13 starts. He also won the NLCS and World Series MVPs in 2008. Decent track record, I’d say.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports feels there is no better time than right now to acquire Hamels:

Hamels’ average fastball velocity in May is 93.59 mph, a monthly figure he did not reach last season until August. His strikeout rate, over a full season, would rank among the best of his career.

His walk rate is dropping, and after allowing seven homers in his first three starts, his home run rate also is returning to normal. Hamels has allowed only one homer in his last seven outings, none in his last four.

And as far as his contract as concerned:

Hamels is owed about $90 million over four years or $105 million over five, depending upon whether he is traded to a club on his no-trade list and requires the club to exercise his option. Thus, he already is a bargain by today’s standards and will become even more of a bargain if Amaro kicks in, say, $10 million, to get better prospects.

Point being: get him while he’s hot.

Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

Similar story to Hamels, as Ruben Amaro is also Papelbon’s GM. He is signed through 2015 with a vesting option through 2016, and the Phillies will have to pay a chunk of his $13 million salary in order to get a decent return. If they’re down, Papelbon would be a great fit for the Cubs for two reasons: 1) he’d bring a much needed veteran presence with unbelievable playoff success (1.00 career postseason ERA in 27 IP) to a struggling bullpen, and 2) he played for Theo Epstein for seven seasons (six with Jon Lester). The need is there, and the relationship is there. The price, however, may not be.

No shot

Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds

There are plenty of people out there who think the Cubs have a shot at getting Cueto at the deadline. If you’re one of them, I’m here to tell you all that you’re wrong, bro. Would it be nice to acquire the NL’s biggest workhorse since the start of 2014 (he’s pitched more innings than anyone since then)? Sure. Would I love to add another legit ace to the rotation? Absolutely. Thing is, assuming the Reds continue to suck (they’ve lost nine of their last 10), they won’t consider trading Cueto within the division. They also are said to want some good, young pitching in the return, which would disqualify the Cubs from the running. Expect the Red Sox to pony up and make a serious offer that the Reds’ front office won’t refuse.

Darkhorse

Jeff Samardzija, SPChicago White Sox

Two things that haven’t changed: Shark still has mad flow, but he still lacks consistency. Sure, he put up a monster season in 2014, but he just couldn’t prevent that one terrible month last June that he always seems to struggle through (see May 2011; June 2012; July-September 2013). He was very shaky out of the gate with the White Sox (4.78 ERA in April) but has since been fantastic, having thrown 23 IP with a 1.96 ERA and 19 Ks in his past three starts.

The Sox have really struggled thus far, but I fully expect them to improve as the year goes on, meaning it’s pretty unlikely they move Samardzija at the deadline. If I happen to be wrong, which is usually the case, and the Sox continue to suck, then expect the Cubs to put in a call to Rick Hahn to test the waters. It’s doubtful they’d be willing to give up much, but the rumors will certainly circulate. Samardzija, from what I’ve read, does not want to leave Chicago, so if he actually gets traded elsewhere, it’s easy to picture him coming back to either the North Side or the South Side next winter. Keep your eye on him.

Other Guys to Watch

Grant Balfour, RP, Free Agent

Jonathan Broxton, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

Sean Marshall, RP, Cincinnati Reds

Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Rafael Soriano, RP, Free Agent

Brad Ziegler, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

—————

So there you have it. For the first time since 2008, the Cubs have the look of a trade deadline buyer. As they sit four games over .500 and a game out of the wildcard, it’s clear that their timetable has been moved up. If Theo and Jed expect see their team play in October, they’ll need more pitching, and they’ll need it soon. The stove will continue to get hot as the seasons turn, so be prepared for something big.

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About Adam Levy

Adam Levy is a diehard sports fan and grew up in the suburbs of Chicago. After graduating with a Master's Degree from Indiana University, he began working at a consulting firm in the loop. In his spare time, he watches sports, re-watches Seinfeld episodes for the 23rd time, plays pickup basketball, competes in sports leagues during the summer, and overvalues all of the players on his fantasy teams. He is extremely passionate about his teams and will likely be found curled up in the fetal position on his bed, crying and cursing after significant losses. If you like his insight, feel free to comment, follow him on Twitter @ChiCityBS, or email him at aplevy1@gmail.com.

Posted on May 28, 2015, in Cubs and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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