Midseason Evaluation of White Sox Hitters
We are now halfway through the MLB regular season, and the Chicago White Sox are still holding their own and sitting in first place in the AL Central with a three game lead. Amazing. Whether or not the Detroit Tigers will finally start playing up to their potential remains to be seen, but it’s hard to see this White Sox team slowing down anytime soon. They rank fifth in the AL in runs scored (409) and sixth in team ERA (3.91). Since the addition of Kevin Youkilis, the Sox are 10-4, including series wins against the Rangers (sweep) and Blue Jays, and are averaging an incredible 6.14 runs per game.
If you can recall from a couple of months back, I wrote a post titled “By the Numbers: Evaluating the Impact of Cubs and Sox Hitters,” in which I used Bill James’ Runs Created Formula in an attempt to compute the number of runs “created” by a hitter throughout the course of a season (refer to the book Mathletics). Simply put, if a team consisted of nine of the same player, such as nine Paul Konerkos, approximately how many runs would they have scored thus far this season and, more importantly, how many runs would they score for their team per game? Instead of using sabermetric measurements that most casual fans don’t understand, such as wins above replacement (WAR), the runs created formula gives us the ability to evaluate the true value that each hitter has brought to his respective lineup thus far this season. Like last time, I gathered each player’s statistics and computed the runs created and game outs used for each hitter using:
Runs created = ((hits + BB + HBP) X (Total Bases)) ÷ (AB + BB + HBP)
Game outs used = .982(AB) – hits + GIDP + SF + SAC + CS
Remember, according to Mathletics, “approximately 1.8% of all at bats result in errors. Hitters also create ‘extra’ outs through sacrifice flies (SF), sacrifice bunts (SAC), caught stealing (CS), and grounding into double plays (GIDP).” Hence why we must take .982 of every at-bat instead of 1. Game outs used must then be divided by 26.72 (the total number of game outs available in a game, taking into account the .018 approximate number of errors per 27 outs in a MLB game) in order to determine the number of games’ worth of outs used by each hitter. That, ultimately, leaves the most important equation as the final step:
Runs created per game = runs created ÷ games’ worth of outs
Obviously, runs created per game tells you more about a hitter’s value than total runs created because the latter does not differentiate between bad hitters with a lot of plate appearances and great hitters with less plate appearances. That being said, take a look at the numbers below:
Youk’s numbers are clearly inflated due to how great he’s been in a White Sox uniform in only 49 at-bats, so the 10.05 runs created per game is bound to go down. However, it’s important to point out that, between 2008-2010, Youkilis managed to create 8.39, 8.61 and 8.92 runs respectively. Although he only averaged 427 at-bats the last two seasons of that span due to a variety of injuries, those numbers are still pretty unbelievable. If there’s anything to take away from the chart, it’s this: Brent Morel is bad. Like really bad. Sox fans should be kissing Kenny Williams’ and Rick Hahn’s asses every single day for the rest of the season for trading a couple of crackerjacks for Youkilis. That should end up going down as the best trade of the year for any one team.
If you move on down the line, everything seems to make sense. Paul Konerko continues to do what Paul Konerko does, taunting opposing pitchers to the tune of a .329 batting average and .904 OPS. The dude just doesn’t seem to let up and remains one of the most consistent hitters in all of baseball. He has been the most valuable hitter in the Sox lineup all season long, but at this point in his career, no baseball fan needs statistics to help him/her figure that out.
The biggest surprise this season has to be Alex Rios. He’s quietly having a monstrous turnaround season, ranking fifth in the AL in hits with 101 and 11th in total bases with 166. He’s also second on the team with a .318 average and leads the team in extra-base hits with 36 (tied with Dunn). To put into perspective how truly great he has been this season, take a look at last year’s numbers:
Rios has already created more runs midway through this season than he did all of last season. Quite frankly, he was atrocious last year, and Sox fans had all but given up on him. But, as Rios has proven, it’s never too late to turn things around. Somewhere, Adam Dunn is nodding aggressively.
Alexei Ramirez has certainly gotten better since we last calculated these numbers (was creating 1.75 runs per game seven weeks into the season), but he still remains dead last among every day Sox hitters in runs created per game. He barely ever walks (his on-base percentage is a measly .287) and only has 17 extra-base hits, also good for last on the team. It seems as if Ramirez will continue to shit on White Sox brass as he rakes in his $8 million per year, but as I just pointed out, there’s always room for improvement.
The 2012 season is moving fast and the dog days of summer are rapidly approaching. With only 77 games left, the White Sox are in position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The second half of the season is going to be a grind, but if the Sox can maintain these hot bats, they should have no problem getting to October.
Posted on July 10, 2012, in White Sox and tagged Alex Rios, Alexei Ramirez, Bill James, bunts, detroit tigers, gidp, Kevin Youkilis, mathletics, MLB, Paul Konerko, runs created, sabermetrics. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.